以色列的崛起，中東諸國之最，過去戒急，這回自認可獨力擊垮伊朗，會不會太自大？ CNN 的節目主持人跑到華郵專欄？
The Middle East is being reshaped by a fundamental shift in the balance of power: the rise of Israel. Consider the changed landscape. In the 1990s, Israel was closer to
a run-of the-mill developing country. Today, its per capita gross domestic product rivals many in Europe and is the highest in the region, except for Qatar (which has a lot of oil and gas and few people). In 1990, Israel’s GDP per capita was slightly higher than Iran’s; today, it is nearly 15 times Iran’s. The country now operates at the frontiers of technology, which is why the Gulf states have been so eager to develop ties with it. And in the last two years, Israel’s military and intelligence forces have fought and bested Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Syria and Iran. Its multi-tiered air defenses have stopped the vast majority of incoming missiles and drones.
Put this all together, and you have a country that has become the region’s superpower. Even so, Israeli officials were cautious about acting forcefully against some of the threats they faced. As Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations points out, for the last two decades, the conventional wisdom in the United States and in Israel was that with adversaries such as Hezbollah and Iran — which had thousands of rockets and missiles that they could rain down on Israel — deterrence was the best that Israel could achieve. Every time it suffered a blow, Israel hit back, but it all seemed calculated to avoid escalation.
从纸面上看，以色列与伊朗的实力对比似乎是悬殊的——一个九百万人口的国家对抗中东的巨人、8800万人口的伊朗。但是以色列拥有强大且先进的军事力量，这令它能够压制这个体量大得多的敌人。
司馬觀點：以色列的兩國論
2017年02月21日
川普是最親以色列的美國總統，他任命女婿當中東特使，這女婿是傳統猶太拉比的兒子。他新任命的以色列大使長期募款支持擴建屯墾區，而且本人就住在耶路撒冷。多位前任大使投書反對這項任命，說他立場太激進，無助於以巴和平，但川普決定翻轉歐巴馬的中東政策。
社會分裂如部落國
歐巴馬不顧以色列的強烈反對，和伊朗達成核子協議，且在任期最後幾天，以棄權方式讓聯合國通過譴責以色列的決議案，以色列認為此舉是突擊和背叛，對歐巴馬口誅筆伐不遺餘力。川普一上任，就放棄伊朗協議和兩國論，情勢似乎對以色列十分有利，不過，自己國家自己救，說到底，內政才是關鍵。
以色列是百分之百的移民社會，來自70多個國家，有的宗教意識薄弱，幾近無神論，有的傳統和極端虔誠教徒，相信舊約律法，經過數十年持續不斷的武裝衝突和國際孤立，自由派和溫和派日漸疏離，強硬派逐漸佔上風，聯合政府被宗教黨挾持，社會分裂的現象相當嚴重。
耶路撒冷和特拉維夫完全是兩個世界，一個是宗教色彩極為濃厚的猶太城市，一個是充滿地中海風味的歐洲城市。以色列人住在不同社區、上不同學校、看不同語言報紙。除屯墾區之外，居民沒有多數派和少數派，社區形同部落，有人說，以色列快要變成部落國家。
屯墾政策爭議不斷
阿拉伯人生育率很高，現在已佔以色列五分之一人口，根據一項統計，以色列小學生，38％俗世派猶太人，25％阿拉伯人，20％極端猶太教派，另外15％傳統教派。對屯墾區的民意也很分歧，認為屯墾區對安全有利者佔三分之一，認為有害者也佔三分之一，其他三分之一沒意見，無所謂。
屯墾政策在以色列內部爭論數十年，現在累了，一國論或兩國論，隨它去吧，反正人的命運是神決定的。
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