Amazon Drives Seattle Office Market Surge

亞馬遜點燃西雅圖樓市

KRISTINA SHEVORY 2013年06月08日

Matthew Ryan Williams for The New York Times

位於South Lake Union地區的一處住宅項目，此地的一系列開發活動深深吸引着開發商們。

如果將西雅圖辦公樓市場的強勁勢態歸功於一家公司，那就應是亞馬遜(Amazon)。    

去年（2012年），這家網絡零售商促成 了西雅圖數額最大的一樁買賣，也是此市最大的一宗土地交易合約，標的為西雅圖房地產市場內近幾十年來出現的唯一一處市中心的大型地塊。上個月（即2012 年12月——譯註），亞馬遜通過Vulcan房地產公司(Vulcan Real Estate)買下180萬平方英尺（約合16.73萬平方米）的土地，作為其辦公室總部，交易額高達11.6億美元。這是美國全國迄今為止最大的一宗辦 公用地交易。對於亞馬遜而言，這樁交易可謂一次大膽的出發。此前，這家公司一直安於待在租用的辦公室里。

這還不算完。儘管亞馬遜在西雅圖租賃和購買的辦公面積已達270萬平方英尺（約合25.09萬平方米），這家網絡零售商還計劃把這個數字至少翻一番，在今年內為三座市區北邊的辦公大廈奠基。亞馬遜未對此發表評論。

亞馬遜的這一系列舉動，導致了西雅圖辦公樓租賃市場的升 溫，及辦公室空置率的顯著降低，並激發了市場的信心。商業房產經紀人基德·馬修(Kidder Mathews)表示，其他一些以科技公司為主的公司，已經將房屋空置率由2011年四季度的12.4%，降低到去年底的10.7%。

房屋空置率降幅最大的，是位於市區以北的South Lake Union地區。亞馬遜涉足這片街區，引得其它公司紛紛在此尋找大型辦公室和新樓盤。據商業房地產經紀公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)稱，過去三年中，西雅圖 大約有一半的凈吸納量(net absorption)——也即由公司租賃或購買的空間數量，都來自South Lake Union地區。這裡的房屋空置率從9.3%下降到了5.4%。

「我們發現，許多公司都想要同亞馬遜離得更近，產生協同作用，無論他們的業務是否與亞馬遜相關。」世邦魏理仕的高級副總裁傑西·奧特爾(Jesse Ottele)說。

辦公樓市場變得緊張，推高了西雅圖全市的房租。馬修稱，租金從2011年四季度的每平方英尺27.80美元（約合每平方米299.45美元），上漲至去年底的29.19美元（約合每平方米314.08美元）。由於市場中大面積的A級辦公空間已所剩無幾，短期內也無新盤入市，所以房產經紀人們預計，商業房產的租金今年還會繼續上漲。

現在，開發商們又開始討論建樓了——就算承租人還未確定。據世邦魏理仕統計，在這座城市中，有800萬平方英尺（約合74.35萬平方米）的辦公空間正被修建，其中超過一半是計劃建於或已經建在了South Lake Union地區。一家名為Dupre & Scott Apartment Advisors的研究公司稱，住宅開發商們今年也將拿出5800套公寓，是近幾十年來房源投入量最大的一年。

Vulcan房地產公司將寶押在會有更多公司搬到 South Lake Union地區這個判斷上。儘管這家開發商擁有South Lake Union地區30%的建築用地，過去十年間的建成面積已超過500萬平方英尺（約合46.47萬平方米），但他們在當地還剩有多達700萬平方英尺（約 合65.06萬平方米）的土地可供建房。在今年，Vulcan公司會有兩棟大廈破土動工，一棟租給亞馬遜，另一棟則將成為一座生命科學研究大樓。如果市政 當局今年春季放鬆對這一街區內辦公樓的高度限制，Vulcan公司可能還將繼續修建兩座辦公樓，及三座24層高的公寓大廈。

「我們現在寄望於自己身處一個復蘇的經濟當中，並將迎合時機着手興建新樓，」Vulcan房地產公司副總裁埃達·黑利(Ada Healey)說，「我們希望在2013年佔得先機。」

基於對政府提高新建大樓高度限制的預期，其他開發商也開始 有所行動。一年半前，瑞典房產開發與建築公司Touchstone and Skanska在South Lake Union區買下幾個街區。此後，這家公司為總面積達110萬平方英尺（約合10.22萬平方米）的三棟辦公大樓提交了建設許可，這已超出了目前的限制。 該公司的高層稱，即便沒有租賃合同，他們也會考慮興建這些大樓。

「大約在2012年6月前後，我們發現A級辦公樓的租金水平足以支持新樓盤開工建設了，」總部位於西雅圖的美國商業開發公司Skanska的執行副總裁麗莎·皮卡德(Lisa Picard)說：「項目隨時可以開工。我們將根據市場的供給、需求狀況，決定是否付諸實施。」

西雅圖似乎已躋身投資人目標清單的榜首。根據城市土地研究 所(The Urban Land Institute)的數據，西雅圖在辦公樓興建地排名中，位列全國第四。這得益於當地1.2%的預期就業增長率，以及花名冊上越來越多諸如星巴克 (Starbucks)、諾德斯特羅姆(Nordstrom)、波音(Boeing)的知名公司。因為西雅圖擁有這些成長穩健的公司，一貫尋求穩定回報的 房地產投資者們紛紛湧入了這座城市。

「資本遵循着一些基本原則，」位於洛杉磯的世邦魏理仕副主席凱文·香農(Kevin Shannon)如是說，「西雅圖和舊金山是西海岸市場中的兩顆明星。若是在幾年前，我不大確定能否把西雅圖列入核心清單；但現在，我們有很多員工都在關注西雅圖市場。」

這個城市的投資市場進一步鞏固了去年的復興勢頭。根據研究及諮詢公司Real Capital Analytics提供的數據，西雅圖2012年的總成交額猛升203%，達到50億美元。在1450萬平方英尺（約合134.76萬平方米）的成交面積中，亞馬遜總部是佔地面積最大的一筆交易。

去年早些時候成交的羅素投資中心(Russell Investments Center)大樓，或許是2012年最重要的一筆交易。因為這筆交易證明了，這座城市的投資市場已經全面復蘇。當這棟42層高的辦公大樓2011年底投 入市場時，它吸引了34個買家團。這是個「不可思議」的數字，當時負責這筆交易的世邦魏理仕的香農稱。去年，這座大樓以4.8億美元售出，比其2009年購入價的四倍還多。

一家名為Clarion Partners的投資管理公司在對羅素大樓的競價失利後，旋即着手尋找其它租金收入可靠、又同羅素大樓一樣屬於「藍籌」的樓盤。他們真的找到了這麼一棟 大樓，位於第三大道1201號，是西雅圖當地第二高的大樓，也是已經破產的華盛頓互助銀行的前總部所在地。Clarion公司以5.488億美元的價格，將這座55層高的大廈賣給了大都會人壽保險公司(MetLife)與一家匿名的房地產機構投資人聯合成立的合資企業，促成這樁去年全美規模第十大的房產交易。

「我們希望租售市場能保持藍籌勢頭，產生健康而持續的現金流」，Clarion Partners公司的常務董事史蒂夫·拉蒂默(Steve Latimer)說：「我們並不指望出現我們的錢在頭三年里就翻幾番這樣爆炸性的新聞，只要能平穩增長就好。」

西雅圖的房地產交易速度在今年可能放緩，因為許多辦公大樓都已名花有主，可供交易的所剩無幾。  

本文最初發表於2013年1月16日。
翻譯：王思楠

Amazon Drives Seattle Office Market Surge

By KRISTINA SHEVORY June 08, 2013

 If the strength of Seattle’s office market could be chalked up to one company, it would be Amazon.

Last year, the online retailer was responsible for the city’s biggest deal, its largest lease and the purchase of the only large chunk of downtown land to come on the market in decades. Amazon bought its 1.8-million-square-foot headquarters last month from Vulcan Real Estate for $1.16 billion, the biggest office sale nationwide and a bold departure for a company that had been content to rent space until last year.

And it’s not done yet. Although Amazon leases or owns 2.7 million square feet of space in Seattle, the online retailer plans to more than double that figure when it breaks ground on three office towers of its own on the northern fringe of downtown this year. Amazon did not return calls seeking comment.

Amazon’s flurry of activity has led to rent increases and a drop in office vacancy and has inspired confidence in the market. Other companies, largely led by technology firms, have shaved the vacancy rate to 10.7 percent at the end of last year, from 12.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to Kidder Mathews, a commercial real estate brokerage.

The biggest vacancy decrease has been in South Lake Union, an area north of downtown where Amazon’s stake in the neighborhood has drawn other companies looking for large floorplates and new buildings. In the last three years, about half of Seattle’s net absorption, or the amount of space companies leased and occupied, was in South Lake Union, where the vacancy rate fell to 5.4 percent from 9.3 percent, according to CBRE, a commercial real estate brokerage.

“We’re seeing a lot of companies that want to be closer to Amazon and that synergy, whether they do business with Amazon or not,” said Jesse Ottele, a senior vice president at CBRE in Seattle.

A tighter office market has pushed up rents across the city. The average rent rose to $29.19 a square foot at the end of last year, from $27.80 in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to Kidder Mathews. With few large blocks of Class A office space available and little new space expected to reach the market soon, brokers expect rents to go even higher this year.

Developers are now talking about building again — even without a tenant. Eight million square feet of office space are in the works across the city, with more than half planned or under construction in South Lake Union, according to CBRE. Residential developers will also open 5,800 units this year, the most in decades, according to Dupre & Scott Apartment Advisors, a research firm.

Vulcan Real Estate is betting more companies will want to move to South Lake Union. Although the developer, which owns 30 percent of the land there, has built more than five million square feet of space in the last decade, it has up to seven million square feet of space left that it can build. This year, Vulcan is breaking ground on two office buildings leased to Amazon and a life-sciences research building. If the City Council raises height limits in the neighborhood this spring, Vulcan may move ahead with plans for two more office buildings and three 24-story residential towers.

“We’re now looking to position ourselves for a recovering economy and teeing up speculative buildings,” said Ada Healey, a vice president at Vulcan Real Estate. “We want to be in a situation to take advantage of 2013.”

Other developers are also moving ahead in anticipation of the height rezoning. After purchasing blocks in South Lake Union in the last year and a half, Touchstone and Skanska, a Swedish development and construction company, submitted permits for three office buildings, for a total of 1.1 million square feet, that would exceed current limits. Company executives said they would consider building without a signed tenant.

“Sometime around mid-2012, we saw rents for Class A office that justified new construction,” said Lisa Picard, executive vice president of Skanska USA Commercial Development in Seattle. “The project is ready to start. We’ll look at the supply and demand of the market and decide whether to go.”

Seattle appears to be at the top of many investors’ shopping lists. The Urban Land Institute ranked the city as fourth-best in the country for office buildings thanks to its projected job growth of 1.2 percent and its roster of expanding brand-name companies like Starbucks, Nordstrom and Boeing. Real estate investors, who are looking for steady returns, have flocked to Seattle for its stable and growing companies.

“The capital followed the fundamentals,” said Kevin Shannon, CBRE’s vice chairman in Los Angeles. “Seattle and San Francisco were the two stars in West Coast markets. A couple of years ago, I’m not sure Seattle would be on a core shopping list. We now have a lot of people looking at Seattle.”

The city’s investment market cemented its revival last year. The volume of deals skyrocketed 203 percent in 2012 over the previous year, to $5 billion, according to Real Capital Analytics, a research and consulting firm. Among the 14.5 million square feet sold, Amazon’s headquarters space is the largest.

The sale of the Russell Investments Center building early last year, though, was perhaps the most significant of the year because it showed the city’s investment market had fully recovered. When the 42-story office tower was put up for sale in late 2011, it attracted 34 buyer tours, an “incredible” number, said Mr. Shannon of CBRE, which handled the sale. It sold last spring for $480 million — more than four times its purchase price in 2009.

After its bid for the Russell building lost, Clarion Partners, an investment management company, looked for other buildings with the same “blue chip roster” and reliable rents, which it found at 1201 Third Avenue, the city’s second-tallest tower and a former headquarters of the failed Washington Mutual. Clarion advised on a deal to sell the 55-story tower for $548.8 million, the 10th-largest deal in the country last year, to a joint venture of MetLife and an unidentified institutional real estate investor.

“We expect it to continue to have blue chip tenancy and generate good, predictable cash flow,” said Steve Latimer, a managing director at Clarion Partners. “We’re not expecting spectacular headlines of tripling our money in three years, just steady growth.”

Seattle’s brisk sales pace may slow this year since so many office buildings have traded hands and there are few left.

“Were there other first-class properties, we’d be interested,” said Mr. Latimer, Clarion’s Seattle director. “Seattle is clearly a market that will continue to grow.”